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本文理论性地提出了汇率作用于实体经济的传导机制,探讨了汇率变动给地方经济金融运行造成的影响,以及我国汇率制度改革以来尤其是2008年以来广东经济金融运行存在的问题,并通过结构向量自回归模型分析了汇率失调对金融稳定的冲击。本文认为:人民币汇率制度改革有利于优化经济结构、转变增长方式并提高资源配置效率,但由于国内外经济环境日趋复杂,需要稳步推进外汇体制改革,合理把握汇率升值的步伐和节奏,强化经济主体的汇率风险意识,确保经济金融平稳运行。
This paper theoretically put forward the transmission mechanism of the exchange rate effect on the real economy, discussed the impact of exchange rate changes on local economic and financial operations, as well as the problems of Guangdong’s economic and financial operations since the reform of China’s exchange rate system, especially since 2008, Vector autoregression model analyzed the impact of exchange rate misalignment on financial stability. This paper argues that the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime is conducive to optimizing the economic structure, changing the mode of growth and improving the efficiency of resource allocation. However, due to the increasingly complicated economic environment at home and abroad, it is necessary to steadily push forward the reform of the foreign exchange system, reasonably grasp the pace and pace of exchange rate appreciation, Awareness of the exchange rate risk to ensure the smooth operation of economic and financial.