本文目的是研究如何应用患病率(流行率)和感染度(平均虫负荷)的关系预测人群中肠蠕虫病发病的危险程度。采用以前介绍过的数学模型,对巴西人群中蛔虫病患病率和平均感染度的资料进行观察与分析。以前的研究证明,人蛔虫病患病率和平均感染度的关系取决于寄生虫在宿主种群内的分布频率。这种关系呈非线性型。应用负二项分布 The purpose of this paper is to study how the relationship between prevalence (prevalence) and infectivity (average worm burden) can be used to predict the risk of enterobotasis in the population. Using the mathematical model introduced previously, the prevalence and average prevalence of ascariasis in the Brazilian population were observed and analyzed. Previous studies have shown that the relationship between the prevalence of human ascariasis and the average degree of infection depends on the frequency of parasites within the host population. This relationship is non-linear. Apply the negative binomial distribution