论文部分内容阅读
本文首先确定中国经济周期波动的特征事实,发现改革开放以来中国的技术进步中存在明显的体现在设备资本中的投资专有技术进步特征。本文将投资专有技术变迁引入到一个具有内生的资本利用率的不可分劳动RBC模型,考察这种技术变迁及其冲击对中国经济周期波动的影响。通过与一个引入中性技术冲击的基本RBC模型的对比研究,本文发现,本文提出的模型能够解释76%以上的中国经济波动特征,并能较准确地解释包括就业在内的主要实际变量周期波动的特征事实,而基本RBC模型仅能解释中国经济周期波动的47%。研究结果证实了投资专有技术进步在短期上对中国宏观经济波动存在着影响,同时表明引入的传播机制对于将技术冲击放大和传播到经济环境中起到了重要作用。
This paper first identifies the characteristics of the volatility of China’s economy and finds that there has been a clear characteristic of the technological advancement of investment in equipment capital in China’s technological progress since the reform and opening up. This paper introduces the change of investment proprietary technology into an inseparable labor RBC model with endogenous capital utilization rate and examines the impact of this technological change and its impact on China’s economic cycle. By comparing with a basic RBC model that introduces neutral technical shocks, this paper finds that the model proposed in this paper can explain more than 76% of China’s economic volatility and can accurately explain the cyclical fluctuations of major real variables including employment The fact that the basic RBC model can only explain 47% of China’s economic cyclical fluctuations. The results of the study confirm that investment-only technological advances have an impact on China’s macroeconomic volatility in the short term, and show that the introduction of the transmission mechanism has played an important role in amplifying and disseminating technological shocks to the economic environment.