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湖北省清江隔河岩水利枢纽是一项集发电、防洪、灌溉及航运等综合效益的大型工程。自 1983年 4月蓄水以来 ,库岸部分滑坡体受库水位浸泡和库水位的抬高以及反复涨落的影响 ,出现了不同程度的变形。作者有针对性的选择受库水位反复涨落影响 ,稳定性差 ,变形较大 ,人口居住密集 ,潜在危害性大 ,有可能碍航 ,危及人民生命财产安全的茅坪、墓坪及杨家槽重要滑坡 ,进行了监测分析及预测模型研究。1.在滑坡变形分析中应用了数理统计图表法、滑坡条块分析法及环境工程地质类比法 ,数据定量分析与地质分析相结合 ,综合分析了水库蓄水前、后滑坡地表与深部的变形特征及其主要影响因素 (库水位反复涨落、大气降雨及人类工程活动、水库诱发岩溶气爆型地震等 )。2 .在非线性建模的技术方法上 ,改进了传统的变形替换作“曲改直”的常规算法。首次巧妙地采用测量学中的参数平差法与优化数学中的牛顿法和麦夸尔特参数估计法来优化滑坡预测模型参数 ,提高滑坡预测模型精度。3.研究开发的滑坡变形系统 QJ—HPV3.0应用软件 ,将自动寻优选模 ,自动优化模型参数建模和自动绘制彩色图象等 3大功能有机结合起来 ,为实现滑坡监测数据处理自动化提供有益经验。
Qinghe Geheyan Hydropower Project in Hubei Province is a large-scale project that has comprehensive benefits such as power generation, flood control, irrigation and shipping. Since the water storage in April 1983, part of the landslide body in the reservoir bank has been deformed to varying degrees due to the soaking of the reservoir water level and the elevation of the reservoir water level and the repeated fluctuation. The author’s targeted choice is influenced by repeated fluctuation of reservoir water level, with poor stability, large deformation, dense population residence, potentially harmful, potentially impeding navigation and endangering people’s lives and property, Maoping, Tomb and Yangjiagou Important landslide, carried out monitoring analysis and prediction model research. 1. Applying mathematical statistics, landslide block analysis and environmental engineering geologic analogy to landslide deformation analysis, the data quantitative analysis and geological analysis are combined to comprehensively analyze the deformation of surface and deep landslides before and after reservoir impoundment Characteristics and its main influencing factors (repeated fluctuation of reservoir water level, atmospheric rainfall and human engineering activities, reservoir-induced karst gas explosion-type earthquakes, etc.). In the technical method of nonlinear modeling, we improved the traditional method of transforming to replace the traditional method of “transforming straight into straightforward”. For the first time, the parameters of landslide prediction model are optimized and the accuracy of landslide prediction model is optimized by using the parameter adjustment method in surveying and the Newton method and the Macquarr parameter estimation method in optimization mathematics. 3. Research and development of landslide deformation system QJ-HPV3.0 application software, the automatic optimization model selection, automatic optimization of model parameters and automatic mapping of color images and other three major functions of organic combination, in order to achieve landslide monitoring data processing automation provided Beneficial experience.