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投资者预期形成是多因素影响的主观心理过程,是人的主观心理特征作用于客观信息的结果。宏观经济信息强调了预期的正确性,主观心理特征存在心理偏差,预期常偏离实际,主观预期来自客观信息的理性部分和主观心理的非理性。投资者心理偏差大于理性,异质预期形成。社会互动使投资者个人的异质预期导致群体演化,群体演化过程即巨大现金流形成过程,引起股票价格震荡,促使预期正确的投资者进行新一轮的群体演化和股票价格震荡。会计准则缺陷、银行及监管的顺周期性、管理者行为顺周期性、会计报告不真实、资本市场价值基础薄弱等不好的外部环境加速了这一循环路径。降低股票价格震荡的措施是:完善资本市场法律法规、建立逆周期公允价值计量模型、完善金融监管、提高股民素质。
The expected formation of investors is a subjective psychological process influenced by many factors and is the result of subjective psychological characteristics of people acting on objective information. Macroeconomic information emphasizes the correctness of expectations. There are psychological deviations in subjective psychological characteristics, expectations are often deviated from reality, and subjective expectations come from the rational part of objective information and the irrationality of subjective psychology. Investors psychological deviation than rational, heterogeneous expected formation. Social interaction makes the heterogeneous expectation of individual investors lead to the evolution of groups. The process of group evolution, that is, the formation of huge cash flow, causes the stock price to fluctuate, prompting the expected investors to make a new round of group evolution and stock price volatility. The irregularities in accounting standards, the pro-cyclicality of banks and supervisors, the pro-cyclical nature of managers’ behavior, the unrealistic accounting reports, and the weak foundation of the capital market have accelerated this cycle. Measures to reduce the stock price turmoil are: perfecting the capital market laws and regulations, establishing counter-cyclical fair value measurement models, improving financial supervision and improving the quality of shareholders.