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论文利用1999—2006年我国31个省(直辖市、自治区,因资料所限,不包括台湾省及香港和澳门地区)的面板数据,采用格兰杰因果关系检验、普通最小二乘法、固定效应模型、随机效应模型和动态面板数据模型广义矩等来分析我国土地财政对耕地数量变化的影响。研究结果表明:①土地财政与耕地数量之间存在相互反馈作用;②土地财政是导致我国耕地数量减少的重要原因,其影响的弹性系数为-0.01;③土地财政对耕地保护具有正反两方面作用:一方面,土地财政刺激地方政府形成城市扩张冲动,导致耕地数量减少;另一方面,土地财政带来土地开发整理增加耕地面积的大幅增加,降低耕地减少速度;④经济、人口和城镇化等社会经济因素也是导致我国耕地数量减少的重要原因。
The dissertation uses the panel data of 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions, limited to data, excluding Taiwan Province and Hong Kong and Macao) from 1999 to 2006, using Granger causality test, ordinary least square method, fixed effects model , Random effects model and dynamic panel data model generalized moment to analyze the impact of land finance on the change of cultivated land quantity in our country. The results show that: (1) There exists a mutual feedback between the amount of land finance and the amount of cultivated land; (2) Land finance is the important reason that leads to the decrease of cultivated land in China, and the coefficient of elasticity is -0.01; (3) Land finance has both positive and negative effects on the protection of cultivated land On the one hand, land finance stimulates the local government to form the impulse of urban expansion, which leads to the decrease of cultivated land; on the other hand, the land finance brings about the substantial increase of cultivated land through land development and arrangement, and the reduction of cultivated land; ④The economy, population and urbanization Other socio-economic factors also contributed to the decrease of cultivated land in our country.