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为了推动病虫测报工作向数学模式化发展,本文以建立“最优”回归方程为目的,用逐步回归方法,通过电子计算机,组建了二代粘虫发生区一代成虫迁入量的中长期及短期预测模式。方法和结果如下: 1.以我国东北地区一代成虫迁入量为预报对象。 2.在一代区除对徐州等3站的一代幼虫发生程度进行相关普查外,还在一代区选取上海、南京等8站以及一代成虫向北迁飞过境地区的济南等3站,对上述11个站一代成虫迁出期的高空风资料进行相关分析。由于至今尚未能在空中捕获粘虫,对它的迁飞高度尚有不同看法。因此,本文对上述11站1,500、1,000、500米3个高度的风向资料,按15个风向方位统计一代成虫迁出期出现某风向方位的次数,将相关超过0.05显著水平的作为待选因子。 3.分别建立了3个不同高度的中长期预测及短期预测模式,都得到较好的结果。这说明用虫情因子及高空风建立预测式是可行的和非常有意义的。还可以看出:一代成虫迁入量与一代幼虫发生程度呈正相关;与迁出期南风、偏南风呈正相关;与北风、偏北风呈反相关。模式有一定的生物学意义,可为粘虫预测增添一条新的模拟研制途径。
In order to promote the development of mathematical modeling of pest and disease detection, this paper aims to establish the “optimal” regression equation by using the stepwise regression method and the electronic computer to establish the medium and long term Short-term forecasting model. The methods and results are as follows: 1. To predict the population of immigrants in the northeast of China. In addition to the generation census of the generation of larvae at three stations in Xuzhou, a total of 8 stations such as Shanghai and Nanjing were also selected in the first-generation district and Jinan, the third generation of migrant adults migrating to the north in the transit area, A single generation of adult migratory upper air data correlation analysis. Since so far it has not yet been able to catch armyworms in the air, there are different views on its flight altitude. Therefore, in this paper, the wind direction data of 3 heights of 1,500,1,000,500 m at 11 stations above are calculated in the direction of 15 wind directions. 3. Set up medium-to-long-term forecast and short-term forecast of 3 different heights respectively, and get better results. This shows that it is feasible and very significant to establish the predictive formula with insect factors and upper-air winds. It can also be seen that there is a positive correlation between the immigrant population of one generation and the occurrence of the first generation larvae, the positive correlation with the southerly wind and the south southerly windward phase, and the inverse correlation with the north wind and the northerly wind. The model has certain biological significance, which can add a new simulation development route for armyworm prediction.