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2008年,是中国各种饲料原料价格及成本上涨最快最大的一年,也是在同一年大涨大跌的一年。到11月初时,有的产品价格涨跌幅度均达到50%以上。分析其原因,主要是全球物价暴涨,金融市场失控,虚拟经济对实体经济产生巨大冲击的结果。其实,全球物价的暴涨从2007年就开始加快了。随着全球金融危机的暴发,实体产业出现了前所未有的波动,物价的大幅涨跌令产业人士瞠目结舌,毫无准备。在饲料行业,由于物价的大涨大跌无法预期,导致多数企业在产业运作上持观望态度,出现以销定产、进多少货、生产多少产品、卖多少商品的格局。害怕过多的库存因物价涨跌蒙受更大的损失。还有的企业因为生产链的断裂加剧了资金链的断裂进程,或面临停产和破产。所以,从2008年的经济动态中,行业和企业家们不但要关注行业发展的趋势,更要关注相关产业的动态;关注中国和全球的宏观经济走势;不但要关注实体经济的走势,还要关注虚拟经济的走势。从目前的情形来看,饲料业的物价和其它行业的物价一样,价格体系正在整合中,涨价幅度越大的产品,降价的幅度也越大,比如石油股份、钢材、豆粕、磷酸氢钙等等。有经济学家认为,2008年发生的全球金融危机及经济危机,不但对所在国家和地区造成重大影响,大有引发“国家破产”的危言耸听,其它国家同样也会因此而受到重大影响,整合这种危机影响、理顺产业和物价关系的期限需2~3年,也可能会更短。在物价整合的过程中,我们要从自然、源头、库存、贸易、进出口、物流、行业组织状况等诸多方面加强研究,正确决策,提高企业运作水平,减轻企业运营风险。
In 2008, it was the year with the fastest and highest price and cost increase of various raw materials for feedstuffs in China and a year that plummeted sharply in the same year. By early November, some product prices rose by more than 50%. Analysis of the reasons, mainly the global soaring prices, financial markets out of control, the virtual economy has a huge impact on the real economy results. In fact, the surge in global prices has accelerated since 2007. With the outbreak of the global financial crisis, the real estate industry experienced unprecedented volatility. As a result of the sharp price changes, industrialists were stunned and unprepared. In the feed industry, the plunge in prices can not be expected. As a result, most enterprises hold a wait-and-see attitude toward industrial operation and appear to have more or less goods sold, how many products to produce, and how many products to sell. Afraid of excessive inventory due to price fluctuations suffered greater losses. Still others are exacerbated by the fragmentation of the production chain, the process of breaking the capital chain, or facing the shutdown and bankruptcy. Therefore, from the economic dynamics of 2008, the industries and entrepreneurs should not only pay attention to the development trend of the industry but also pay attention to the dynamics of related industries; pay attention to the macroeconomic trends in China and the world; not only pay attention to the real economy trend but also Concerned about the trend of virtual economy. From the current situation, the price of the feed industry is the same as that of other industries. The price system is being integrated. The larger the price increases, the greater the price cuts. For example, oil stocks, steel products, soybean meal, dicalcium phosphate and many more. Some economists think that the global financial crisis and economic crisis that took place in 2008 will not only have a significant impact on the countries and regions in which they are located, but will also cause alarmist “bankruptcy of the state.” Other countries will also be greatly affected and integrated This crisis affects the rationalization of industry and the relationship between the price of 2 to 3 years, may also be shorter. In the process of price consolidation, we must strengthen research, correct decision-making, raise the level of operation of enterprises, and mitigate the operational risks of enterprises from aspects such as nature, source, stock, trade, import and export, logistics and trade organization.