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目的明确广东省登革热本地病例高发区域及高发时间。方法采用时间序列分解方法将2003-2012年广东省登革热本地病例进行分解,探寻登革热高发时间;采用Sa TScan中单纯空间分析方法分析广东省登革热高发区域。结果广东省登革热发生具有明显的季节性,本地病例高发于9、10月;本地病例发生具有明显地域异质性,登革热本地病例第一聚集区为广州市越秀区、荔湾区、白云区、海珠区、天河区、番禺区和佛山市禅城区。结论广东省登革热本地病例时空分布特征明显,登革热防控应提前并将有限卫生资源向高发区域合理倾斜。
Objective To identify the high incidence of local cases and high incidence of dengue in Guangdong Province. Methods The time-series decomposition method was used to decompose the local cases of dengue fever in Guangdong Province from 2003 to 2012 to explore the high incidence of dengue fever. The high-incidence area of dengue fever in Guangdong Province was analyzed by simple spatial analysis method of Sa TScan. Results The incidence of dengue fever in Guangdong Province was significantly seasonal. The local cases were high in September and October. The local cases were characterized by obvious geographical heterogeneity. The first gathering area for local cases of dengue fever was Yuexiu District, Liwan District, Baiyun District, Haizhu District, Tianhe District, Panyu District, Foshan Chancheng District. Conclusion The temporal and spatial distribution of dengue fever in Guangdong Province is obvious. Prevention and control of dengue fever should be advanced and the limited health resources should be reasonably inclined to high incidence areas.