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目的为及时发现全国青运会举办期间传染病防控方面可能存在的风险,研究判断疫情态势,提出风险建议。同时为福建省风险评估提供技术支撑,也为类似的风险评估工作提供评估方法。方法采用专家会商法和德尔菲(Delphi)法,开展风险识别、分析与评价;采用风险分值法进行风险评估。结果风险水平高的危险因素为病因威胁,其主要来源是肠道微生物威胁和自然疫源微生物威胁;风险水平中等的危险因素为人群脆弱性和卫生资源,其主要来源是人群聚集情况和疾病早期识别能力。结论在分析福建省近五年传染病疫情和突发公共卫生事件监测资料、影响因素、已有防控措施的基础上,通过专家会商,认为第一届青运会举办期间传染病类突发公共卫生事件的风险水平为中等。
The purpose is to find out the possible risks in the prevention and control of infectious diseases during the National Youth Games in a timely manner, to study and determine the epidemic situation and put forward risk suggestions. At the same time, it provides technical support for risk assessment in Fujian Province and also provides assessment methods for similar risk assessment work. Methods The experts’ commercial law and Delphi method were used to carry out risk identification, analysis and evaluation, and risk score method was used to carry out risk assessment. Results The risk factors of high risk level were pathogenic threat. The main sources were intestinal microbial threat and natural epidemic microbial threat. The medium risk risk factors were population vulnerability and health resources. The main sources were crowd aggregation and early stage of disease Recognition ability. Conclusion Based on the analysis of monitoring data, influencing factors and prevention and control measures of epidemic situation and public health emergencies in recent five years in Fujian Province, through expert consultation, it is considered that the epidemic of infectious diseases The risk level for public health emergencies is medium.