论文部分内容阅读
通过研究1970年至2013年的61个房地产繁荣时期,我们发现房地产市场的繁荣与萧条显著影响经济增长,但城镇化进程和高速收入增长则对应较小的住房价格调整房地产是目前讨论中国经济的核心问题。虽然各方基本都认同房地产市场已到拐点,但对于未来房价的修正幅度莫衷一是。在这里,我们希望通过国际上的房地产周期的例子,观测一些共同特征,以提供新的视角。我们使用国际清算银行(BIS)编纂的数据,其中包括1970年至2013年54个经济体的房价数据。我们定义了覆盖31个经济体(不包括中国)共61个房地产繁荣期,其中大部分繁荣期之后紧接着是房地产市场修正期。
By studying the period of 61 real estate boom periods from 1970 to 2013, we find that the boom and bust of the real estate market significantly affected economic growth, but the process of urbanization and high-speed revenue growth corresponded to a smaller housing price adjustment. Real estate is currently under discussion of China’s economy key problem. Although all parties agree that the real estate market has reached its inflection point, the rate of correction for future housing prices is not correct. Here, we hope to observe some common features through examples of the international real estate cycle to provide a new perspective. We use data compiled by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), which includes price data for 54 economies from 1970 to 2013. We have defined 61 real estate boom periods covering 31 economies (excluding China), most of which are followed by the real estate market correction period.