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针对农户面临多种销售渠道时的选择问题,在可持续生计分析框架下从生计资本角度出发构建评价指标,对不同地区菜农的生计资本进行评价;并采用多元选择模型(Multivariate Probit)分析生计资本对于农户销售农产品途径的影响及不同销售渠道之间的相互关系,结果表明:1)北京地区除自然资本外,其他几类资本拥有情况均较好;辽宁地区较为缺乏人力资本、山东地区主要缺乏金融资本。2)人力资本、自然资本对于自己零售、中间商收购、通过批发市场销售和超市直供有着显著影响,物质资本、社会资本和金融资本影响农户对于合作社和订单农业这2种渠道的选择。3)农户在不同销售方式之间的选择通过替代或互补效应产生相互影响:中间商收购与自己进行零售、订单销售与超市直供、订单销售与合作社销售之间存在着显著的互补作用,批发市场销售与自己进行零售、批发市场销售与中间商收购、合作社销售和批发市场销售3对销售方式之间存在着显著的替代关系。
In the framework of sustainable livelihood analysis, from the perspective of livelihood capital, this paper constructs evaluation index to evaluate the livelihood capital of farmers in different regions. In the framework of sustainable livelihood analysis, Multivariate Probit is used to analyze the selection of livelihood capital The results show as follows: 1) In addition to natural capital, Beijing has several types of capital ownership; the Liaoning Province lacks human capital and the major lack in Shandong Province Financial capital. 2) Human capital and natural capital have significant influence on their own retail and middlemen’s acquisitions through direct sales in the wholesale market and direct supply of supermarkets. Physical capital, social capital and financial capital influence the choice of farmers for the two channels of cooperatives and order farming. 3) Farmers’ choice between different sales modes has an impact on each other through alternative or complementary effects: there is a significant complementarities between middlemen buying and own retail sales, order sales and supermarket direct sales, order sales and cooperative sales, wholesale There is a significant alternative between marketing and own retail sales, wholesale market sales and broker acquisitions, co-operative sales and wholesale sales.