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本文采用结构分解分析SDA模型对1990-2005年江苏省经济发展变化的源泉进行了实证研究。主要结论:第一,江苏经济增长长期主要靠消费拉动,中期则更多地依赖投资驱动;第二,技术变化长期对降低三次产业中间消耗需求发挥了显著作用,但中期对第一、第二产业的影响不大;第三,技术进步改善了对绝大多数行业的中间消耗,尤其是对采掘业和资本密集型制造业;第四,消费对现代服务业的促进作用较大,而资本形成对采掘业及部分资本密集型、技术知识密集型行业影响较大;第五,煤炭采选业、电力等行业总产出的变化受制于省际间净调出变化,而服装皮革及其他纤维制品制造业受净出口增加的影响,充分反映出江苏资源、市场两头在外的经济结构特征。
In this paper, an empirical study of the source of economic development in Jiangsu Province from 1990 to 2005 was conducted by using structural decomposition analysis (SDA) model. The main conclusions are as follows: First, Jiangsu’s economic growth has mainly been driven by consumption in the long run, and more on investment-driven in the medium term. Second, technological changes have played a significant role in reducing intermediate consumption among the three industries in the long term. However, Industry has little effect; third, technological progress has improved the intermediate consumption of most industries, especially for extractive industries and capital-intensive manufacturing; Fourth, the role of consumption in promoting modern service industry is greater, while capital The formation of the mining industry and some capital-intensive, technology-intensive industries have a greater impact; Fifth, coal mining industry, electricity and other industries output changes subject to inter-provincial net transfer changes, while the leather and other apparel The impact of the increase in net exports on the manufacturing of fiber products fully reflected the economic structural characteristics of Jiangsu’s resources and markets.