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为解释实际道路交通流中的跟车距离差异,引入期望及参照点理论,提出期望安全车距(ESD)概念,分析其主要影响因素。采用C#编程模拟车辆跟驰行为,以跟车距离的试验值作为ESD的代表值,从横向角度考察ESD的个体差异,分析性别及实际驾龄对ESD的影响,并采用单因素方差分析(ANOVA)方法对比分析不同驾驶类型间的差异。数据显示:驾驶人ESD的个体差异较大,性别对ESD有一定影响,实际驾龄对ESD的影响无明显规律。ANOVA分析表明:驾驶类型对ESD有极大影响(P<0.001)。ESD是驾驶人判断车距是否安全的参考点,是导致实际跟车距离存在差异的主要原因。
In order to explain the discrepancy between the following distance in the actual traffic flow and the expectation and reference point theory, the concept of expected safety distance (ESD) is put forward and the main influencing factors are analyzed. Using C # programming to simulate the following behavior of vehicles, taking the test value of follow-up distance as the representative value of ESD, the individual differences of ESD were investigated from the lateral perspective. The effects of gender and actual driving experience on ESD were analyzed. One-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) Methods Compare and analyze the differences among different driving types. The data shows that there is a big difference between the driver's ESD and the gender. The gender has a certain influence on the ESD. There is no obvious regularity on the effect of the actual driving experience on the ESD. ANOVA analysis showed that: driving type has a great impact on ESD (P <0.001). ESD is the driver's reference point to determine whether the car is safe, leading to the actual car with the main differences in the distance.