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从2000年以来,我国房地产业发展迅猛,商品房实际平均销售价格年均涨幅较大,直到近期我国房地产价格才出现较大幅度的下调。于此同时,我国银行信贷的增长幅度也呈现出时而扩张,时而紧缩的势头,这与房地产价格波动出现很大的一致。因此,对我国银行信贷与房地产价格之间的影响机制和效应进行深入研究,会对避免我国银行业危机和确保房地产市场的健康发展起到指导意义。文章在理论分析的基础上,进一步运用结构自相量(SVAR)模型,得出如下结论:银行信贷与房地产价格之间不具有长期稳定的关系,短期信贷对房价的影响占主导地位,反过来不成立。
Since 2000, the real estate industry in our country has been developing rapidly. The actual average sales price of commercial buildings has risen on an average every year. Until recently, real estate prices in our country have been reduced substantially. At the same time, the growth of China’s bank credit also showed a tendency of expansion from time to time and from time to time. This is in line with the real estate price fluctuations. Therefore, an in-depth study on the mechanism and effect of the impact of bank credit and real estate prices in our country will be instructive in avoiding the banking crisis in our country and ensuring the healthy development of the real estate market. Based on the theoretical analysis, the article makes further use of the SVAR model and concludes that there is no long-term and stable relationship between bank credit and real estate prices, and short-term credit has a dominant influence on housing prices. In turn, invalid.