中国经济停滞与倒退已十分严重,但由于各方面条件的变化,目前已经很难推出“新四万亿”了,即使推出也不会有上次的效果5月工业增速从4月的9.3%回升至9.6%,因此有些观点认为经济将“二季度触底,三季度反弹”。然而笔者认为未必,事实上到明年底前中国经济下行趋势不会改变。 China’s economic stagnation and retrogression have been very serious, but due to changes in various aspects, it is difficult to introduce “new 4 trillion ”, even if the launch will not have the last effect. May industrial growth from April 9.3% to 9.6%, so some people think that the economy will “hit the bottom in the second quarter and rebound in the third quarter.” However, I do not think it is necessary. In fact, the downward trend of China’s economy will not change until the end of next year.