民营上市企业如何克服债务融资难的问题,为债务融资决策寻找依据一直是企业融资领域的重要课题,通过建立存在严格外生变量的贝叶斯动态面板数据随机效应模型,从企业外部宏观金融环境和内部治理两个方面研究债务融资决策的影响因素;利用Gibbs抽样算法进行模拟仿真,得到模型参数的后验估计值。研究结果表明:民营上市企业当期债务融资水平与前一期负债水平、企业成长性、企业规模、企业与政府关系密切度正相关,与外部宏观金融环境、盈利性以及短期偿债能力负相关,这表明企业的负债具有惯性,处于快速成长阶段、规模越大、与政府关系越密切的民营上市企业负债水平越高;外部宏观金融环境较好并且盈利能力、短期偿债能力越强的民营上市企业负债水平越低。 How to overcome the difficulty of debt financing and find the basis for debt financing decision has always been an important issue in the field of corporate finance. By establishing a random effect model of Bayesian dynamic panel data with strict exogenous variables, And internal governance of the two aspects of debt financing decision-making influencing factors; using Gibbs sampling algorithm for simulation to obtain the posterior estimate of the model parameters. The results show that the current debt financing level of private listed companies is positively correlated with the debt level, corporate growth, firm size and the close relationship between the government and the government in the previous period, negatively correlated with the external macro-financial environment, profitability and short-term solvency, This shows that the liabilities of enterprises have inertia and are at a rapid growth stage. The larger the scale, the higher the level of indebtedness of private listed companies that has a close relationship with the government. The better the external macro-financial environment is, the more profitable and short-term solvency is, The lower the level of corporate debt.