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全球变暖背景下近些年中国南方地区干旱气候事件频发,水土资源匹配态势并不乐观。论文以吉泰盆地为案例区,采用标准化降水指数,系统诊断吉泰盆地近50a的干旱态势,识别干旱的类型与强度;构建水分平衡模型,重演历史干旱气候条件下南方红壤丘陵地区耕地、林地等主要用地类型的水分平衡。研究表明,1960-2010年,吉泰盆地近30%的年份发生了干旱,频率较高。其中,轻旱发生的频次最高,特旱位居其次,吉泰盆地干旱大多发生于伏秋期间;无旱气候条件下,吉泰盆地水分平衡量约为448mm,自然降水整体可以满足林地和耕地等主要用地类型的水分需求,水分盈余是其平衡关系的基本特征,盈余量整体呈现河谷、平原低于丘陵、山地的空间格局;轻、中、重和特旱气候条件下,吉泰盆地耕地水分平衡量由无旱态势下的盈余转为亏缺,林地的水分盈余量下降幅度在37.87%～77.80%;轻、中、重旱气候条件,吉泰盆地的水分平衡量较无旱时依次下降了55.07%、70.28%和96.08%;在特旱气候条件下,缺水量达72mm;随着干旱程度的加剧,吉泰盆地水分盈余量降低、亏缺量增加。
In recent years, the climate change in southern China in recent years has been characterized by frequent occurrence of the climate change and the matching situation of water and soil resources is not optimistic. Taking the JiTai Basin as a case area, the standardized precipitation index was used to systematically diagnose the drought situation in the JiTai basin in the past 50 years to identify the types and intensities of the drought. A water balance model was constructed to reproduce the farmland and woodland in the red soil hilly region in the southern arid climate And other major types of water balance. Research shows that from 1960 to 2010, drought occurred in the JiTai basin in nearly 30% of the year, with a high frequency. Among them, the frequency of light drought was the highest, followed by that of special drought, and the drought of Jitai Basin mostly occurred during the autumn of autumn. Under drought-free climate, the water balance of Jitai Basin was about 448mm, and the natural precipitation could meet the demand of forest land and cultivated land The water surplus is the basic characteristic of the balance relationship. The surplus shows the spatial pattern of the valley and the plain below the hills and mountains. Under the conditions of light, medium, heavy and arid climate, the cultivated land in the Jitai Basin The balance of water balance turned from deficit under the drought-free situation, and the decrease of water surplus in the forest land was between 37.87% and 77.80%. In light, medium and heavy arid climatic conditions, the water balance of Jitai Basin was lower than that of no drought Decreased by 55.07%, 70.28% and 96.08% respectively. Under drought conditions, the water deficit reached 72mm. As the degree of drought increased, the surplus of water in Jitai Basin decreased and the deficit increased.