论文部分内容阅读
基于我国2000~2015年的省际面板数据,将31个省市按东、中、西三大区域划分,建立个体固定效应变系数模型分析了就业、城镇化、城乡收入差距等因素对我国人口增长的影响。结果表明:我国不同区域人口增长的影响因素存在较大差异,东部地区主要受城镇化、在岗职工工资的影响;中西部地区主要受就业、城镇化和在岗职工工资的影响;在总体上,就业和城镇化对人口增长起促进作用,而城乡收入差距对人口增长起阻碍作用,其影响程度依次递减。由于人口增长的影响因素存在地区差异,为了减缓目前我国人口增长缓慢,人口老龄化速度加快,劳动力日渐短缺的状况,国家和地方政府应该根据不同的区域特征制定不同的人口政策,促进人口增长,最大限度地减缓人口老龄化可能给我国的经济发展带来的负面影响。
Based on the provincial panel data from 2000 to 2015 in our country, 31 provinces and municipalities were divided into three regions according to the eastern, central and western regions, and individual variable coefficient model of fixed effect was established to analyze the influence of employment, urbanization and urban-rural income disparity on China’s population The impact of growth. The results show that the influencing factors of population growth in different regions of our country are quite different. The eastern region is mainly affected by urbanization and on-the-job workers ’wages; the central and western regions are mainly affected by employment, urbanization and on-the-job workers’ wages; in general, And urbanization promoted the population growth, while the income gap between urban and rural areas hindered the population growth, and the degree of their impact decreased in turn. Due to the regional differences in the factors affecting population growth, in order to mitigate the current slow population growth, the accelerated population aging and the shortage of labor force in our country, national and local governments should formulate different population policies based on different regional characteristics to promote population growth, To minimize the negative impact that an aging population may have on China’s economic development.