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目的分析东洞庭湖区2012、2014年人群血吸虫病空间分布变化及其影响因素,为制定有效的干预措施提供参考。方法在东洞庭湖区选取君山区作为研究现场,运用空间自相关分析君山区2012、2014年人群血吸虫病感染率空间分布特征的变化,使用空间回归模型探讨影响人群感染的危险因素。结果 2013年君山区家畜血吸虫感染率低于2011年;2014年君山区人群血吸虫平均感染率降为0.55%;2012年和2014年君山区人群血吸虫感染均存在空间自相关,局部空间自相关分析探测出4个高高聚集村;2012年空间误差模型显示,人群感染率与家畜感染率和易感环境面积呈正相关,而2014年空间滞后模型显示,易感环境面积呈正相关,家畜感染率无统计学意义。结论封洲禁牧和牛羊淘汰措施对防控血吸虫病效果显著,可根据君山区血吸虫病空间分布特征,在东洞庭湖湖区继续实施该措施和开展查螺灭螺工作。
Objective To analyze the spatial distribution and influencing factors of schistosomiasis in East Dongting Lake area in 2012 and 2014 and to provide reference for the formulation of effective interventions. Methods We selected Junshan district as the research site in East Dongting Lake area. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was used to analyze the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis infection rates in Junshan district in 2012 and 2014. Spatial regression models were used to explore the risk factors affecting the infection in the population. Results In 2013, the infection rate of schistosomiasis in Junshan district was lower than that of 2011. The average infection rate of schistosomiasis in Junshan district was reduced to 0.55% in 2014. Spatial autocorrelation and spatial autocorrelation analysis of schistosoma infection were found in the population of Junshan district in 2012 and 2014 The spatial error model in 2012 showed that there was a positive correlation between population infection rate and livestock infection rate and susceptible environmental area. However, the spatial lag model in 2014 showed that the susceptible environmental area was positively correlated and the infection rate of livestock was not statistically significant Significance of learning. Conclusion Forbidden grazing in Banzhou and measures for phasing out cattle and sheep have significant effects on the prevention and control of schistosomiasis. According to the spatial distribution of schistosomiasis in Junshan, the measures can be continued in Dongting Lake and lake areas, and snail-killing work can be carried out.