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对于渔业的中长期预报计算 ,是渔业种群补充的关键问题。本文在单位补充量产量和单位补充量生物量模型中加入了亲体 补充模型即密度相关过程 ,并引入了白色噪音以模拟环境变化。结果表明 :本研究 (1)可以明确地给出渔业种群崩溃的可能性 ,估计出达到崩溃时的捕捞死亡率 ;(2 )可以估计最大持续产量的绝对值 ;(3 )引入的白色噪音可以模拟环境变化对产量与捕捞死亡率和产量与亲体生物量关系曲线的影响。虽然亲体补充关系仍多是个假设 ,补充与亲体之间存在的补偿机制需要进一步的研究。
The calculation of mid- and long-term forecasts of fisheries is a key issue in complementing fisheries stocks. In this paper, the parental replenishment model, the density-dependent process, is added to the unit volume and the unit replenishment biomass model, and white noise is introduced to simulate the environmental changes. The results show that: (1) The probability of collapse of fishery population can be given clearly, and the fishing mortality at the time of collapse can be estimated; (2) The absolute maximum continuous yield can be estimated; (3) The introduced white noise can Effects of simulated environmental changes on yield and fishing mortality and yield and parental biomass curves. Although the relationship between parental supplement is still mostly a hypothesis, the compensation mechanism between supplement and parental body needs further study.