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目的通过应用累计和控制图法分析《北京市医院传染病监测预警系统》中流感样病例的变化情况,以探讨累计和控制图法在流行性感冒流行预警中的应用价值。方法使用累计和控制图法对北京市门头沟区2009年的流感样病例数进行传染病预警分析。取H=3σ,k=1,分别计算C1、C2、C3,当Ct≥H时认为增加差异有统计学意义,发出预警信号。结果 C1:从第41~44周发出预警信号;C2:第39周、第41~48周发出预警信号;C3:第39~48周发出预警信号。C1、C2、C3均在流行性感冒高峰到来前发出警报,有良好的预警作用。结论使用累积和控制图分析可以在流行性感冒流行前准确发出预警信号,有良好的预警作用,为制订防控策略提供依据。
Objective To analyze the changes of influenza-like cases in “Beijing Hospital Infectious Disease Surveillance and Warning System” by using the method of accumulation and control charts to explore the application value of cumulative and control charts in the epidemic early warning. Methods The accumulative and control charts were used to carry out the early warning and analysis of infectious diseases in the Mentougou District of Beijing in 2009. Take H = 3σ, k = 1, respectively, calculate C1, C2, C3, when Ct ≧ H that increase the difference was statistically significant, issued an early warning signal. Result C1: The warning signal was sent out from the 41st to the 44th week; C2: The warning signal was sent out on the 39th and 41st to 48th weeks; C3: The warning signal was sent out on the 39th to 48th weeks. C1, C2 and C3 all give an alert before the influenza peak arrives, which has a good warning effect. Conclusion Accumulation and control chart analysis can accurately give early warning signals before the epidemic of influenza, which has a good early warning effect and provides the basis for the development of prevention and control strategies.