论文部分内容阅读
IMF对人民币经常项目预期的下调与央行扩大汇率浮动幅度均说明,国际、国内决策者已认可人民币汇率接近均衡水平的观点。今年4月,中国人民银行宣布将银行间即期外汇市场人民币兑美元交易价浮动幅度由千分之五扩大至百分之一。其后,国际货币基金组织下调了人民币经常项目预期,预计2015～2016年中国经常项目盈余占GDP的比重最高将达到4%～4.5%,远低于去年7%的预测值。对经常项目预期的下调与决策层扩大汇率浮动幅度均说明,国际、国内决策者已认可人民币汇率接近均衡水平的观点。从今年4月至今,人民币对美元实际上出现了贬值趋势,虽然改变了此前普遍升值的趋势,但实际有效汇率仍维持升值态势。而伴随着人民币汇率争议的减少,以往将人民币汇率问题作为焦点
Both the IMF’s expected downward revision of the current account of the renminbi and the expansion of the floating rate of the exchange rate by the central bank show that international and domestic policymakers have recognized the view that the renminbi exchange rate is close to equilibrium. In April this year, the People’s Bank of China announced that it will increase the fluctuation of the trading price of RMB against the U.S. dollar in the inter-bank spot foreign exchange market from five thousandths to one percent. Thereafter, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) lowered its forecast of the current account of the renminbi. It is estimated that the current account surplus will account for 4% -4.5% of GDP in 2015-2016, much lower than the forecast of 7% last year. Both the expected downward revision of the current account and the expansion of exchange rates by decision-makers suggest that international and domestic policymakers have recognized the view that the exchange rate of RMB is near equilibrium. Since April this year, the devaluation trend of RMB against the U.S. dollar has actually taken place. Although it changed the trend of general appreciation before, the effective effective exchange rate still maintained its appreciation. With the reduction of the RMB exchange rate dispute, the RMB exchange rate issue in the past as the focus