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文章利用递归VAR模型实证检验了美国房价波动对中美贸易的影响。通过脉冲响应分析发现美国房价增长率的正向冲击在短期内对中美贸易顺差增长率的总体影响为正,但同时也会引起中美贸易顺差增长率的上下交替波动,其波动的幅度随时间推移逐渐变小,直至一年左右后脉冲效应基本消失。通过方差分解分析进一步说明美国房价波动是引起中美贸易顺差短期波动最为重要的冲击源之一,其影响力超过了美国原材料价格波动和美国联邦基金利率波动的影响。
The article uses recursive VAR model to test the impact of housing price fluctuations on Sino-US trade. Through the impulse response analysis, it is found that the positive impact of US house price growth rate on the overall impact of the growth rate of China-US trade surplus in the short run is positive, but it also causes the fluctuation of the growth rate of Sino-US trade surplus to fluctuate alternately. As time goes on, the pulse effect gradually disappeared until about a year later. Variance decomposition analysis further illustrates that housing price volatility in the United States is one of the most important sources of shocks causing short-term fluctuations in the trade surplus between China and the United States. Its influence exceeds the fluctuations in the prices of raw materials in the United States and the fluctuation of interest rates in the United States federal funds.