论文部分内容阅读
本文利用我国1989~2009年的5个经济变量建立结构向量自回归(SVAR)模型,估计出5类冲击对我国居民消费需求变动的影响。结果表明,供给冲击、需求冲击和价格冲击对我国居民消费需求变动的贡献率分别为25%、26%和28%,货币冲击对我国居民消费需求变动的贡献率仅为5%。正向的需求冲击、货币冲击和个人对未来不确定性预期变化的冲击最终均导致我国居民消费率得到提高,而正向的供给冲击、价格冲击均导致我国居民消费率下降。
In this paper, the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) model is established by using five economic variables from 1989 to 2009 in our country and the impact of five types of shocks on the change of residents’ consumption demand in our country is estimated. The results show that supply shocks, demand shocks and price shocks have contributed 25%, 26% and 28% of the change in consumer demand in China respectively. The contribution of currency shocks to the change in consumer demand in China is only 5%. Positive demand shocks, monetary shocks and personal shocks on the expected changes in the future uncertainty all eventually lead to an increase in the consumer spending rate in our country. However, the positive supply shocks and price shocks have all caused the decline in the consumer spending rate in our country.