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笔者选取2004年~2015年的月度数据,运用回归分析的方法,研究我国小麦、大米、玉米和大豆四种粮食作物的价格影响因素。研究发现,国际粮食价格与我国大米和大豆价格表现为显著的正向相关关系;国际原油价格与我国大米和玉米价格表现为显著的正向相关关系,与大豆价格表现为负向相关关系;种粮成本与小麦、大米和玉米价格表现为显著的正向相关关系;广义货币供应量与小麦、大米和玉米价格表现为显著的正向相关关系。提高粮食自给率水平、加大补贴力度和制定科学的宏观政策对我国粮食价格的稳定、粮食产业的发展具有重要的理论和现实意义。
The author selects the monthly data from 2004 to 2015 and uses the regression analysis method to study the price influencing factors of the four kinds of food crops such as wheat, rice, corn and soybean in China. The study found that the international grain prices and China’s rice and soybean prices showed a significant positive correlation between the international crude oil prices and China’s rice and corn prices showed a significant positive correlation between the performance and the price of soybeans showed a negative correlation between species There was a significant positive correlation between the cost of grain and the price of wheat, rice and corn. The broad money supply showed a significant positive correlation with the price of wheat, rice and corn. Raising the level of self-sufficiency of grain, increasing subsidies and formulating scientific macro-policies have important theoretical and practical significance for the stability of grain prices in our country and the development of grain industry.