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文章基于社会核算矩阵测度了主要煤炭供给省区煤炭供给变动对其他地区其他部门的乘数效应,在此基础上,借助结构路径分析分解了乘数效应,识别出了其传导的基础路径和复合回路,以及关键的节点部门。结果表明:最主要的基础路径是煤炭—电力路径,且仅限于本省区;煤炭供给变动对工业部门影响较大,且存在多条复合路径,如煤炭—化工路径、煤炭—石油路径,煤炭—金属冶炼路径等。主要的关键节点部门表现为化学工业、金属冶炼及压延工业、非金属矿物制品业、交通运输和仓储业等。因此,中国煤炭供给侧改革应该重点调控煤电产业,差异化限制煤炭使用,鼓励技术创新;构建现代能源储运网络,进一步优化输电通道;差异化调控煤炭关联产业,减少对宏观经济的冲击。
Based on the social accounting matrix, this paper measures the multiplier effects of coal supply changes in major coal-supplying provinces on other sectors in other regions. Based on this, the paper analyzes the multiplier effect through structural path analysis and identifies the basic path and compound Loop, as well as key node departments. The results show that the most important basic path is the coal-power path, which is limited to the province only. The change of the coal supply has a great impact on the industrial sector and there are multiple compound paths such as coal-chemical path, coal-oil path, coal- Metal smelting path. The key key sectors are chemical industry, metal smelting and rolling industry, non-metallic mineral products industry, transportation and warehousing industry. Therefore, China’s coal supply-side reform should focus on regulating the coal power industry, differentiating and restricting the use of coal, and encouraging technological innovation; constructing a modern energy storage and transportation network to further optimize transmission channels; and differentiating and controlling the coal-related industries so as to reduce the impact on the macroeconomy.