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当前的投资过热是由两大力量共同推动的:一是住房汽车需求的猛烈释放,二是宽松的货币供给。提升准备金率主要是针对投资过热,通胀压力并不是主要依据,准备金率提升能否控制得住固定资产投资增长值得怀疑。美联储加息使人民币利率上调的可能性在增大,银行存款的负实际利率和人民币升值压力将对股市构成资金面的利好支撑。
The current investment overheating is driven by two major forces: First, the violent release of demand for housing cars, and second, loose money supply. Raise the reserve ratio is mainly directed at overheated investment, inflationary pressures are not the main basis for raising the reserve ratio can control the growth of investment in fixed assets is questionable. The possibility of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to raise the interest rate of the renminbi is increasing. The negative real interest rate of bank deposits and the pressure of RMB appreciation will support the stock market.