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基于已有的研究理论和经验,采用VAR模型研究我国1980~2016年人口城镇化、经济增长及金融结构之间的关系。实证结果表明:人口城镇化与经济增长、金融结构间有长期但效果微弱的累积循环效应;人口城镇化明显促进了经济的增长,反之,而经济增长对城市化的提携作用并不明显;经济增长促使金融结构优化,反之,金融结构优化对经济增长有滞后的影响且效果方向不确定;人口城市化与产业结构没有明显的相关性。
Based on the existing research theories and experiences, VAR model is used to study the relationship between population urbanization, economic growth and financial structure in China from 1980 to 2016. The empirical results show that there is a long-term but weak cumulative cycle effect between population urbanization and economic growth and financial structure; population urbanization obviously promotes economic growth; on the contrary, the role of economic growth in urbanization is not obvious; On the other hand, the optimization of financial structure has a lagged impact on economic growth and the direction of its effects is not certain. There is no obvious correlation between population urbanization and industrial structure.