论文部分内容阅读
目的探讨苏州市大气颗粒物的急性暴露与居民每日呼吸系统疾病死亡的关系。方法采用时间序列的广义相加模型,在控制时间趋势和气象因素等混杂因素的基础上,建立单污染物和双污染物模型,分析2010—2013年苏州市大气PM10、PM2.5浓度对居民每日呼吸系统疾病死亡人数的影响。结果单污染物模型中,苏州市大气PM10(lag0~1)、PM2.5(lag4)浓度每升高10μg/m3,居民呼吸系统疾病日死亡数分别增加0.408%(95%CI:0.083%~0.732%)和0.509%(95%CI:0.098%~0.921%)。双污染物模型中,调整大气PM2.5的影响后,PM10(lag0~1)对呼吸系统疾病死亡的超额危险度略有增加(ER=0.466%,95%CI:0.062%~0.871%);分别调整PM10和NO2的影响后,PM2.5(lag4)对呼吸系统疾病死亡的超额危险度分别为0.525%(95%CI:0.020%~1.029%)和0.782%(95%CI:0.320%~1.243%),差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论苏州市大气PM10和PM2.5浓度升高可能导致居民每日呼吸系统疾病死亡人数增加。
Objective To explore the relationship between the acute exposure of airborne particles in Suzhou City and the daily death of respiratory diseases among residents. Methods Based on the generalized time series additive model, the single pollutants and double pollutants models were established on the basis of controlling the time trend and the meteorological factors. The effects of PM10 and PM2.5 concentration on the population of residents in Suzhou City during 2010-2013 were analyzed. Daily respiratory disease death toll. Results In the single-pollutant model, the daily deaths of respiratory diseases in residents increased by 0.408% (95% CI: 0.083%) when the concentrations of lag0 ~ 1 and PM2.5 (lag4) 0.732%) and 0.509% (95% CI: 0.098% -0.921%). In the double - pollutant model, the excess risk of PM10 (lag0 ~ 1) was slightly increased (ER = 0.466%, 95% CI: 0.062% ~ 0.871%) after adjusting for PM2.5. After adjusting for the effects of PM10 and NO2 respectively, the excess risk of PM2.5 (lag4) on respiratory deaths was 0.525% (95% CI: 0.020% -1.029%) and 0.782% (95% CI: 0.320% 1.243%), the differences were statistically significant (P <0.05). Conclusion The increase of atmospheric PM10 and PM2.5 levels in Suzhou may lead to an increase in daily deaths of respiratory diseases among residents.