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以投入产出理论为基础,探讨了主要产业部门产值变动对碳强度的作用路径和作用关系,在此基础上构建系统动力学模型来反映各产业产值变化对碳强度的动态作用过程,并运用2007年河北省投入产出表中数据计算模型主要参数,并以该年各产业产值为基数假定各产业产值增加1%,对碳强度在未来20年的变化情况进行了动态估计。
Based on the theory of input-output, the paper discusses the path and function of carbon intensity in the changes of output value of major industrial sectors. Based on this, the system dynamics model is constructed to reflect the dynamic process of carbon intensity in the output value of each industry. In 2007, input and output data of Hebei Province were used to calculate the main parameters of the model. Based on the output value of each industry in that year, the output value of each industry was increased by 1%. The dynamic change of carbon intensity in the next 20 years was estimated.