针对航天器解体事件所生成的空间碎片的演化过程,进行了数学分析,确定了新生成的空间碎片的速度增量,在该增量作用下碎片轨道会发生变更,本文根据该增量得出了空间碎片在轨道变更后的轨道根数,分析了在大气阻力摄动作用下,空间碎片的数目和轨道分布的演化情况,给出了相关结果,结果表明此算法可行. According to the evolutionary process of space debris generated by spacecraft disintegration events, a mathematical analysis was carried out to determine the speed increment of the newly generated space debris, and the orbit of the debris would change under this increment. According to this increment The number of orbital changes of orbital debris after the orbital change is analyzed. The evolution of the number of orbital space and the number of orbital distribution of the space debris under the action of atmospheric resistance perturbation are analyzed. The results show that the algorithm is feasible.