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对1998年住房制度改革以来中国大陆房地产业进行研究,揭示房地产市场波动的分形性质,正确认识和把握房地产市场波动规律。利用分形理论及重标极差分析法(R/S法)分析中国大陆房地产市场波动现象。通过对中国大陆房地产市场1998年1月到2013年1月的房地产合成增长率指数和国房景气指数进行R/S分析,结果表明赫斯特指数大于0.5,证明中国大陆房地产市场波动具有分形特性,波动的平均循环长度约为50-60个月。
After the reform of the housing system in 1998, the real estate industry in mainland China has been studied to reveal the fractal nature of the real estate market fluctuations and to correctly understand and grasp the law of the real estate market fluctuations. Analyze the Fluctuation of the Real Estate Market in Mainland China by Using Fractal Theory and Gravity Difference Analysis (R / S Method). Through the R / S analysis of real estate composite growth rate index and national housing prosperity index from January 1998 to January 2013 in mainland China real estate market, the result shows that the Hurst index is greater than 0.5, which proves that the real estate market in China has a fractal character , The average cycle length of fluctuations of about 50-60 months.