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了解与掌握海域使用规模、结构变化特征及其未来变化趋势,对于海洋资源的合理使用,海域空间的有效配置及探索相应的优化策略具有重要的现实意义。本文利用洛伦兹曲线的集中化指数、信息熵模型和R/S分析等方法分析了2002—2015年全国海域使用规模和结构时空差异特征,并进行了动态趋势预测。结果表明:(1)全国海域使用规模持续上升、空间集聚度高、新增用海规模波动增长且区域差异加大;(2)渔业、工业和交通等传统用海比重高、相对增长速度随时间加快、海域使用结构优势度增强并趋于有序;(3)未来14年(2016—2029年)全国和沿海各省海域使用规模仍保持增长,工业、交通运输、海底工程和特殊用途等各类型海域使用规模还将上升,渔业、旅游娱乐等用海则表现为减缓的趋势,排污用海则持续下降;(4)海域使用规模和结构及其变化受区位、历史、经济、土地和政策等因子共同作用,并对海域的生态环境产生较大影响。研究结果对海域管理政策的制定有重要的参考价值。
Understanding and mastering the scale of sea use, the structural change and its future trend of change have important practical significance for the rational use of marine resources, the effective allocation of marine space and the exploration of corresponding optimization strategies. Based on Lorentzian centralization index, information entropy model and R / S analysis, this paper analyzes the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of the national scale and structure of the sea area from 2002 to 2015, and forecasts the dynamic trend. The results showed that: (1) the scale of sea use continued to increase, the spatial concentration was high, the scale of newly used sea-level increased and regional differences increased; (2) The proportion of traditional sea-used fishery, industry and traffic increased with the increasing speed (3) In the next 14 years (2016-2029), the scale of use in the sea areas of the whole country and the coastal provinces will still maintain its growth. The industrial, transportation, subsea engineering and special-purpose The scale of sea area use will also increase. The use of sea areas such as fishery, tourism and entertainment will show a tendency of slowing down and the sea area for sewage will continue to decline. (4) The scale and structure of sea use and its changes are affected by the location, history, economy, land and policies And other factors together, and have a greater impact on the ecological environment of the sea. The results of the study have important reference value for the formulation of marine management policy.