论文部分内容阅读
本文首次采用面板平滑转换回归模型,在非线性的框架下对我国30个省份2000~2015年的财险需求变动进行分析。研究发现,经济增长是影响财险需求的关键因素,在不同的城镇化变化过程中,经济增长对财险需求存在显著的非线性影响;同时,经济增长和城镇化水平的差异也是造成不同省份保险需求发展不平衡的重要原因,说明要促进不同区域保险业的平衡发展需要兼顾经济增长和城镇化水平的提高;此外,固定资产投资在不同城镇化阶段对财险需求均有正影响,而利率水平和通货膨胀率对财险需求的影响并不显著。最后,在此基础上提出了现阶段促进保险业均衡发展的政策建议和措施。
This paper, for the first time, adopts the panel smoothing regression model to analyze the change of demand for property and casualty insurance from 2000 to 2015 in 30 provinces in China under the framework of non-linearity. The study found that economic growth is a key factor affecting the demand for property insurance. In different process of urbanization, economic growth has a significant non-linear impact on demand for property insurance. At the same time, the difference between economic growth and urbanization is also caused by different provinces The important reason for the unbalanced development of insurance demand shows that to promote the balanced development of the insurance industry in different regions, both economic growth and urbanization need to be taken into account. In addition, the investment in fixed assets has a positive impact on the demand for property and casualty insurance in different stages of urbanization. The impact of interest rates and inflation on property demand is not significant. Finally, on this basis, put forward the policy recommendations and measures to promote the balanced development of the insurance industry at this stage.