自进入5月份以来,全国10多个省市自治区先后发生洪涝灾害,灾害除造成人畜重大伤亡外,还造成数百万公倾农作物受灾,其中还有少部分绝收。而进入6月中旬以来,由于受诸多利好因素的影响,低迷长达20多周的畜禽产品价格止跌反弹,以大众畜禽产品猪、禽、蛋为例,7月10日后,本地三元猪最高收购价已高达13.20～13.40元/千克,猪粮比价远高于政府规定6.0:1的盈亏平衡点,品牌鸡蛋和淘汰母鸡从7月25目的7.60元/千克和10.00元/千克延续至今(8月17日),双创本世纪和历史最高记录,面时如此高的畜禽产品价格和养殖回报率,出乎意外的是,自从价格反弹以来,作为苏中地区的养殖大县——海安、东台、如东等地,无论是生猪或者家禽,复圈和补栏者仍很稀疏,究竟是何种原因使生产者的补栏(复圈)信心不能提振呢?笔者为剖析这一问题,先后对县内外众多畜禽养殖户、母猪饲养户和孵禽场进行了全方位、深层次的调查了解。调查结果表明:养殖除了风险系数大,投资回报率受诸多因素制约外,更多的是担心持续数月的洪涝灾害也许能再次助长粮食及其饲料价格的攀升,而洪涝灾害是否能成为饲料价格上涨的动因呢?笔者就有关洪涝灾害及其境内外粮食饲料的相关信息、天灾能否构成饲料价格的上涨、后期饲料价格分析阐述如下,供业界同仁及养殖户参考。 Since entering May, floods and disasters have successively occurred in more than 10 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities across the country. In addition to causing serious human and livestock casualties, the disaster has also caused the disaster of millions of public run-off crops, among which a small amount of them are absolutely unmanageable. Since entering the middle of June, due to the influence of many positive factors, the price of livestock products, which has been sluggish for more than 20 weeks, has stabilized and rebounded. Taking the production of pigs, poultry and eggs for mass livestock and poultry products as an example, after July 10, Yuan pig maximum purchase price has reached as high as 13.20 ~ 13.40 yuan / kg, pig food ratio is much higher than the government’s breakeven point of 6.0: 1, brand eggs and out of hen from July 25 to 7.60 yuan / kg and 10.00 yuan / kg Continuing today (August 17), creating such a record price of livestock and poultry products and raising the rate of return to aquaculture as the highest record of this century and the highest in history, it is surprising that since the price rally, since the price rebound, Whether the live pigs or poultry, rejuvenating and substituting persons are still sparse in counties like Haian, Dongtai, Rudong and so on, what is the reason that the producers’ compensation (reincarnation) confidence can not be boosted? In order to analyze this issue, we conducted a comprehensive and in-depth investigation and understanding of many domestic and foreign livestock farmers, sows and hatcheries. The results of the survey show that, besides the high risk coefficient and the return on investment being restricted by many factors, the more the fear is that the flood disaster lasting several months may once again contribute to the rising price of grain and its feed, and whether the flood disaster can become the feed price Rising motivation? I about the flood disaster and its domestic and international food and feed related information, natural disasters can constitute a feed price rise, post-feed price analysis is described below, for the industry colleagues and farmers reference.