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在鲍莫尔非均衡增长模型的基础上,引入流通和生产的需求互补特性假设,并将工业部门区分为生产职能部门和流通职能部门。利用面板固定效应模型和空间面板杜宾模型对2002-2013年的省份面板数据进行实证分析发现,生产和流通对流通环节就业占比和经济发展表现出木桶效应,流通环节就业占比的提高和经济发展速度的加快需要以流通环节劳动生产率增长速度的相对减缓为代价;另外,变量之间存在空间相关性,对流通环节就业占比而言,显现出劳动力的区域溢出效应和流通环节劳动力的需求端跨区域传导效应,对经济发展而言,则显现出需求端的空间负向传导效应和供给端的空间正向溢出效应。为此,宜进一步深化流通环节改革,提升市场化水平,实现流通环节的健康发展。
On the basis of Baummo’s unbalanced growth model, the hypothesis of complementary demand for circulation and production is introduced, and the industrial sector is divided into production functional departments and circulation functional departments. Empirical analysis of panel data from 2002 to 2013 using panel fixed effect model and spatial panel Dobbin model shows that production and circulation have a barrel effect on the proportion of employment in circulation and economic development and the proportion of employment in circulation increases And the acceleration of economic growth need to be at the expense of the relative slowdown in the growth rate of labor productivity in circulation. In addition, there are spatial correlations among the variables, showing a regional spillover effect of labor force and a circulation labor force The demand-side cross-regional conduction effect, for economic development, shows the spatial negative conduction effect on the demand side and the spatial positive spillover effect on the supply side. To this end, we should further deepen the circulation reform, enhance the level of marketization, and achieve the healthy development of circulation.