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采用逐步回归统计方法,对闽西北地区永安和尤溪2个县(市)21年(1980~2000年)中与早稻穗颈瘟相关的气象因子进行筛选,找出影响早稻穗颈瘟的关键气象预测因子,其中永安市的气象预测因子为3月中旬的降雨日数距平(X19 )、3月下旬的露日数(X62 )和4月下旬的雾日数(X71 );尤溪县的气象预测因子为3月中旬的雾日数(X67 )和5月上旬的雾日数(X72 )。依此建立了两地早稻穗颈瘟预测的数学模型,对模型进行了2年(2001~2002年)的验证,并对2003年早稻穗颈瘟进行了预测应用。
Using the stepwise regression statistical method, the meteorological factors related to early stage rice panicle blast during 21 years (1980 ~ 2000) in two counties of Yongan and Youxi in Northwest Fujian were screened out to find out the key factors affecting early stage panicle blast The weather forecasting factors of Yong’an City are as follows: precipitation anomalies (X19) in mid-March, dewfalls (X62) in late March and foggy days in late April (X71) The factors are the number of fog days in mid-March (X67) and the number of fog days in early May (X72). Based on this, the mathematic model of early rice panicle blast prediction was established. The model was validated for two years (2001-2002), and the prediction and application of rice blast disease in early rice in 2003 was carried out.