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围岩稳定性评价受具有随机性、模糊性和未确知性特点的诸多因素影响与控制,应用传统的围岩稳定性评价方法已很难满足当今复杂地下工程的围岩稳定性评价需求。基于集对分析理论和三角模糊数随机模拟理论,探讨基于联系数和三角模糊数随机模拟的围岩稳定性风险评价模型,即基于待评样本的评价指标体集和围岩稳定性等级标准集构成的集对,构造多元联系数表达式来定量描述评价指标样本与评价标准等级之间隶属关系的层次性和模糊性;采用三角模糊数表达多元联系数的差异度分量系数的连续变化过程和不确定性,以及围岩稳定性等级标准的模糊性,并通过随机模拟技术把三角模糊数及其函数之间的运算转化为普通实数之间的运算,实现克服现有三角模糊数的乘法、除法和函数运算尚不够严谨、操作较为复杂等问题;结合指标权重计算综合联系数以风险评估样本的围岩稳定性等级。实例应用及与其他方法评价结果对比分析表明,本文方法应用于围岩稳定性的风险评价是有效可行的,且取得较好成果,此也为工程设计和施工风险评价提供了重要依据。
The stability evaluation of surrounding rock is affected and controlled by many factors which have the characteristics of randomness, fuzziness and unascertainedness. It is difficult to meet the needs of surrounding rock stability assessment of complex underground engineering by applying the traditional method of surrounding rock stability assessment. Based on the set pair analysis theory and the triangular fuzzy theory stochastic simulation theory, this paper discusses the evaluation model of the surrounding rock stability risk based on the stochastic simulation of the connection number and the triangular fuzzy number, which is based on the evaluation index body of the sample to be appraised and the criterion set of surrounding rock stability grade Constitute a set of pairs, the construction of multiple expressions to quantitatively describe the relationship between the evaluation index sample and the rating hierarchy of the hierarchical and fuzzy membership; the use of triangular fuzzy numbers to express the diversity of the coefficient of variation coefficient component of the continuous change process and Uncertainty and the fuzzy nature of the grade of surrounding rock stability. Through the stochastic simulation technique, the operation between trigonometric fuzzy numbers and their functions is transformed into the operation between ordinary real numbers to realize the multiplication of the existing triangular fuzzy numbers, Division and function operation are not rigorous enough and the operation is complicated. The comprehensive contact number is calculated according to the index weight to evaluate the surrounding rock stability grade of the risk assessment sample. The results of application and comparison with other methods show that the method proposed in this paper is effective and feasible for the risk assessment of surrounding rock stability and has achieved good results. This also provides an important basis for engineering design and construction risk assessment.