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目的探讨山东年肾综合征出血热(HFRS)疫源地的空间异质性。方法采用变异函数模型,对山东省1974~2004年的HFRS疫情资料进行定量分析。结果可将山东省HFRS疫源地空间异质性及其动态变化划分成5个阶段,且各阶段存在1个过渡年。结论HFRS发病率的变异函数模型显示了山东省30年来HFRS疫源地空间结构经历了由简单到复杂,再由复杂到简单的变化过程。
Objective To investigate the spatial heterogeneity of HFRS in Shandong Province. Methods The variance function model was used to quantitatively analyze the data of HFRS epidemic in Shandong Province from 1974 to 2004. Results The spatial heterogeneity and dynamic changes of HFRS in Shandong Province can be divided into five stages and one transitional period existed in each stage. Conclusion The variogram model of incidence of HFRS shows that the spatial structure of HFRS epidemic in Shandong Province has experienced from simple to complex and from complex to simple in 30 years.