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本文对黑龙江省67个县(市)近十年的大豆生育季节(5～9月份)内诸月各旬降水、旬积温(≥10℃)与大豆产量的相关关系进行了多元回归分析。分析结果认为全生育季节的持续性高温和季节性少雨是构成黑龙江省大豆生育季节干旱的主要气象因子。而生育季节少雨干旱乃是左右黑龙江省大豆产量的关键。 文章通过全生育季节各旬降水、旬积温(≥10℃)对大豆产量的偏相关、复相关及其决定系数以及多元回归方程和偏回归系数的显著性测定指出:黑龙江省大豆生育季节内主要有四个时期发生干旱与产量的相关密切,即:五月下旬的芽旱,六月中下旬的植株营养生长干旱;七月中下旬的花旱;以及八月中下旬的荚旱。因此,这四个时期可为黑龙江省大豆生育期内对水份的敏感时期。 因此,为最大限度地在黑龙江省增加大豆产量,应注意旱作栽培技术,并应将大豆品种的抗旱性作为黑龙江省大豆育种的主要目标之一。
In this paper, multivariate regression analysis was conducted on the correlation between the precipitation and the yield of soybean in ten seasons of every month in the past ten years in 67 counties (cities) of Heilongjiang Province during the growing season (from May to September). The results showed that the persistent high temperature and the seasonal drizzle in the whole growing season were the main meteorological factors which caused the drought in soybean growing season in Heilongjiang Province. However, the drought season in the breeding season is the key to the soybean yield in Heilongjiang Province. In this paper, the partial correlation of soybean yield during the whole growth season, precipitation at each ten-day period (≥10 ℃), correlation of multiple correlation and its coefficient of determination, and multiple regression equation and partial regression coefficient were analyzed. The results showed that the major seasons of soybean in Heilongjiang Province There are four periods of drought and yield are closely related, namely: the late drought in May, late mid-June vegetative vegetative drought; drought in mid-late in July; and the drought in late August. Therefore, these four periods can be sensitive to the moisture during the growth period of soybean in Heilongjiang Province. Therefore, in order to maximize soybean yield in Heilongjiang Province, attention should be paid to dry cultivation techniques, and the drought resistance of soybean varieties should be regarded as one of the main objectives of soybean breeding in Heilongjiang Province.