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鉴于综合利用水库调度涉及防洪、发电、供水、航运、生态等多个不可公度的目标,建立了相应的价值函数和风险评价指标体系,基于损失越大权重越大的基本理念,提出了一种通过主客观综合度量确定各指标权重的方法,结合风险的基本定义和逼近于理想解的排序方法,构建了综合利用水库调度方案风险的综合评价模型,并将其应用于丹江口水库调度的计算分析中。结果表明,该模型不仅能给出方案面临的各类风险情况,且可方便快捷地从方案集中选出最佳方案。
In view of the multiple targets of flood control, power generation, water supply, shipping and ecology which are involved in the comprehensive utilization of the reservoir, the corresponding value function and risk evaluation index system are established. Based on the basic idea of greater loss and greater weight, According to the method of determining the weight of each index through the subjective and objective comprehensive measurement, combined with the basic definition of risk and the ranking method approaching to ideal solution, a comprehensive evaluation model of comprehensively using the risk of reservoir dispatching scheme is constructed and applied to the calculation of Danjiangkou reservoir dispatch Analyzing. The results show that this model can not only provide various risk scenarios for the program, but also select the best program from the program quickly and easily.