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本文利用1999~2014年季度数据,实证分析货币政策在产业结构升级中的作用。结果发现:(1)从产业间对比看,第二产业对货币政策冲击的反应最强,第一产业次之,第三产业最小,意味着仅靠货币政策无法实现提升服务业比重的政策目标;(2)从产业内部看,货币政策冲击并不能够提高高端制造业和现代服务业在产业内部的比重,从而说明货币政策在产业内部结构调整中的作用具有一定的局限性。
Based on the quarterly data from 1999 to 2014, this paper empirically analyzes the role of monetary policy in the upgrading of industrial structure. The results show that: (1) From the comparison of industries, the secondary industry has the strongest response to the impact of monetary policy, followed by the primary industry and the tertiary industry, which means that monetary policy alone can not achieve the policy objective of raising the proportion of the service industry ; (2) From the perspective of industry, the impact of monetary policy does not increase the proportion of high-end manufacturing industry and modern service industry in the industry, indicating that monetary policy has some limitations in the internal structural adjustment of industry.