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以发育于青藏高原腹地的红梁河热融湖塘为例,考虑未来50年气候增温2.6℃的情景,采用有限元数值模拟的方法预测2010年-2055年热融湖塘周围多年冻土的发展演化情况,结果表明:热融湖塘显著改变了周围土体的热状态,其对浅部土体影响较小,对深部土体的影响较大;热融湖塘对下部土体的竖向热影响强于对周围土体的侧向热侵蚀;多年冻土上限受外界气候环境的影响较大,而对于多年冻土下限,热融湖塘的影响居于主导地位。
Taking the Honglianghe hydrothermal lacustrine pond developed in the hinterland of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau as an example, considering the scenario that the climate warms up by 2.6 ℃ in the next 50 years, the finite element numerical simulation method is used to predict the permafrost around permafrost lake from 2010 to 2055 The results show that hot-melting lake pond significantly changes the thermal state of the surrounding soil, which has less influence on the shallow soil and greater impact on the deep soil; The vertical thermal influence is stronger than that of the surrounding soil. The upper limit of permafrost is greatly affected by the external climate and environment, while the influence of the hot-melt lake and the hilly pond dominates the lower limit of the permafrost.