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本文采用中国东、中、西部的1993年至2007年的年度样本数据,运用协整理论分析了FDI、进出口贸易对东、中、西三大区域经济增长影响的因果关系。研究发现,东、中、西部地区的FDI、进出口贸易与区域经济增长之间都存在长期均衡关系;东部和中部地区的进口贸易均是经济增长的Granger原因,FDI和出口贸易仅在东部构成了经济增长的Granger原因。最后,本文对实证结果做出分析并指出了相应的政策建议。
Using the annual sample data from 1993 to 2007 in eastern, central and western China, this paper uses the cointegration theory to analyze the causal relationship between the impact of FDI and the import and export trade on the economic growth in the three major eastern, central and western regions. The study finds that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between FDI, import and export trade and regional economic growth in the eastern, central and western regions. The import trade in the eastern and central regions is the Granger cause of economic growth. FDI and export trade are only formed in the east Granger reasons for economic growth. Finally, this paper analyzes the empirical results and points out the corresponding policy recommendations.