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在重构以人口市民化为核心的新型城镇化六律协同体系的基础上,初步搭建了新型城镇化引发地方政府土地依赖病的双重演化逻辑框架,并利用2002~2011年全国省际面板分位数估计方法实证分析了导致地方政府土地财政扩张的新型城镇化因素影响。结果表明:以人口市民化和产业软化为特征的新型城镇化过程具备市场化内生的自我生财机制;当前推进新型城镇化导致地方土地财政高企的主要原因在于地方政府追求就业拉动而采取的税收竞争行为;公共服务配套与社会保障支撑城乡一体化战略虽然在短期内增加了地方政府财政支出压力,但在中长期具备扩大内需快速提振城镇化质量的“回流效应”。东部地区土地依赖程度较高,急需建立适应城镇化发展的土地财政代偿机制,而中西部地区土地财政风险可控因而可将土地财政纳入预算内管理的约束下继续实施土地出让金提取反哺城镇化发展的战略思路,以实现土地单一生财机制向多元生财机制的平稳过渡。
On the basis of reconstructing a new six-coordinated system of urbanization centered on population-based urbanization, the dual evolutionary logic framework of new-type urbanization that triggered the dependence of local government on land-based diseases was initially established. Based on the national panel of provincial inter-provincial competitions from 2002 to 2011 The median estimation method empirically analyzes the impact of new urbanization factors that lead to the fiscal expansion of local government land. The results show that the new urbanization characterized by population democratization and industrial softening possesses a market-oriented endogenous self-enrichment mechanism. The main reason for the present-day new-type urbanization leading to the high financial cost of local land lies in the tax revenue driven by the pursuit of employment by local governments Competitiveness; Public Service Package and Social Security Supporting the integration of urban and rural areas, while increasing the pressure on local governments’ fiscal spending in the short term, they have the “back-flow effect” of rapidly expanding domestic demand in the medium and long term to boost urbanization. Due to the high level of land dependence in the eastern region, it is urgent to establish a land-based financial compensation mechanism that adapts to the urbanization. With the control of land-based fiscal risks in the central and western regions, land finance can be included in the budgetary management and the land transfer payment can be continued. The development of strategic thinking in order to achieve a single mechanism for the production of land to diversify the financial mechanism of a smooth transition.