论文部分内容阅读
诸如GDP等宏观经济指标,是政府经济决策、企业投融资决策以及个人投资决策的重要参考变量,进而会对社会、企业和个人经济利益产生重大影响。因此,能否准确预测以及如何预测宏观经济变量成为重要的课题。本文遵循刚刚兴起的“从微观数据到宏观预测”理论框架研究上市公司汇总会计盈余信息对GDP预测的影响。具体地,我们首先考察上市公司披露的汇总季度盈余信患是否具有对未来季度GDP增长率的预测能力,进而考察宏观分析师在做出经济预测时是否考虑了会计盈余信息以及利用会计盈余信息的有效程度,最后考察分析师的不同特征对经济预测行为的影响。研究发现,上市公司披露的汇总季度会计盈余信息具有显著的宏观预测价值,宏观分析师在做出经济预测时也明显考虑了该会计盈余的信息,不过,不同经验背景的分析师在利用会计盈余信患方面存在显著差异。
Macroeconomic indicators such as GDP are important reference variables for government economic decision-making, corporate investment and financing decisions and individual investment decisions, which in turn have a significant impact on the economic interests of society, enterprises and individuals. Therefore, the ability to predict accurately and how to forecast macroeconomic variables has become an important issue. This article follows the emerging theory of “from micro data to macro forecast” to study the effect of accounting earnings of listed companies on GDP forecast. Specifically, we first examine whether the aggregated quarterly earnings information disclosed by listed companies has the ability to predict the future quarterly GDP growth rate, and then examine whether macro analysts consider accounting earnings information and make use of accounting earnings information in making economic forecasts The degree of effectiveness, and finally examine the impact of different characteristics of analysts on economic forecasting behavior. The study found that the aggregate quarterly earnings information disclosed by listed companies has significant macroeconomic forecasting value, and macroeconomic analysts have obviously taken into account the accounting earnings information when making economic forecasts. However, analysts with different experience backgrounds are using accounting earnings There are significant differences in the aspects of information and suffering.