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为了准确地反映城市交通网络布局、人口分布和职业分布等因素与交通行为之间的相互影响机制,同时考虑到发展中城市交通调查数据的完整性和准确性相对较差,首先建立了一种新的交通需求反馈模型,并对其进行改进,进而形成了一种新型集成模型.通过基于同一套发展中城市交通调查数据对不同模型进行参数标定以及对标定结果进行比较分析,本文得出结论:与被广泛应用的传统四阶段模型相比较,新的反馈和集成模型的标定结果的准确性有了明显提高.随后,根据新型集成模型的标定结果,本文又以富有代表性的发展中城市区域,即印度尼西亚首都雅加达的城市圈作为研究对象,对该区域将来的城市和交通可持续发展政策进行了探究.研究结果表明:随着对城市人口增长的控制、城市道路的建设、公共交通设施的不断完善,多中心发展模式将成为该地区未来可持续发展的城市形态.
In order to accurately reflect the interaction between urban traffic network layout, population distribution and occupational distribution and traffic behavior, taking into account the relatively completeness and accuracy of traffic survey data in developing cities is relatively poor, we first establish a New traffic demand feedback model and improve it to form a new integrated model.Through the calibration of the parameters of different models based on the same set of urban traffic survey data and the comparative analysis of the calibration results, : Compared with the traditional four-stage model which is widely used, the accuracy of the new feedback and integration model calibration results has been significantly improved.Accordingly, based on the calibration results of the new integrated model, this paper takes the representative developing cities Area, that is, the urban agglomeration of Jakarta, capital of Indonesia, explores the future urban and transport sustainable development policies in the region.The results show that with the control of urban population growth, urban road construction, public transport facilities The continuous improvement, multi-center development model will become the region’s future sustainable Continued development of the urban form.