本文在梳理吸收国内外现有研究成果的基础上,结合我国人口结构的变化对我国人口红利和人口负债问题进行了研究,分析了我国人口红利和人口负债形成的原因和特点,利用实证模型估算了人口红利对我国经济的贡献程度和未来平衡人口负债的压力。本文的创新之处是对人口红利和人口负债赋予了新含义,突出了其经济属性,并把人口红利与人口负债对应起来,研究了它们之间可能存在的跨期平衡问题。本文探讨了平衡人口红利和负债的主要方法,并结合我国国情对各种方法进行了成本效益分析,同时建立了实证模型验证了资本投入和资本深化在提升我国人均劳动生产率方面的正向促进作用。在此基础上,本文认为保持高投资率,将已取得的人口红利更多地用于加快基础设施建设、发展科技优势、人口质量优势,及时进行劳动力比较优势转换,是推进农民工转型、实现我国人口红利和人口负债平衡的内在要求和客观需要。 Based on the review of the existing research results both at home and abroad, the paper studies the demographic dividend and the problem of population debt in China based on the change of population structure in our country, analyzes the reasons and characteristics of the formation of demographic dividend and population liabilities in our country, and uses the empirical model to estimate The contribution of demographic dividend to China’s economy and the pressure to balance the population’s liabilities in the future. The innovation of this paper is to give new meaning to the demographic dividend and the population debts, highlighting its economic attributes, and corresponding the demographic dividend with the population debts, and studying the possible intertemporal balance between them. This article explores the main ways to balance the demographic dividend and liabilities and makes a cost-benefit analysis of various methods according to China’s national conditions. At the same time, an empirical model is established to verify the positive role of capital input and capital deepening in raising the per capita labor productivity in China . On this basis, this paper holds that to maintain a high investment rate and to make more use of the demographic dividend that has been made to speed up infrastructure construction, develop scientific and technological superiority and population quality advantages, and timely convert the comparative advantages of labor force, is to promote the transformation of migrant workers and achieve The Internal Requirements and Objective Needs of the Balance of Demographic Dividend and Population Liabilities of Our Country.