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为解决制约矿井充填系统稳定性发展的难题,以金川龙首矿为例,建立基于系统动力学(SD)的充填系统稳定性预测模型。首先,根据充填系统稳定性不同的投入方式,选取6个子系统和20个影响因子,用层次分析法(AHP)确定其权重。其次,通过参数估计法和专家评分确定SD模型参数,并基于SD模型研究不同投入情况下的稳定性发展趋势。最后,利用Vensim软件获得5个子系统中最主要的影响因子,以及决定系统整体稳定性的关键子系统,并预测金川龙首矿充填系统的稳定性。结果表明,为确保充填系统的稳定,该矿应在稳定性评价水平、设备维护修理水平、关键技术研究水平、料浆跑浆漏浆监测水平及安全素质方面增加投资,需就安全行为水平加强投入和管理。
In order to solve the problem of restricting the stability of the filling system of mine, taking the first Jinchuan mine as an example, the stability prediction model of filling system based on system dynamics (SD) is established. First of all, according to the different input methods of filling system stability, 6 sub-systems and 20 influential factors are selected and their weights are determined by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Secondly, the parameter of SD model is determined by parameter estimation method and expert score, and the trend of stability under different input conditions is studied based on SD model. Finally, Vensim software was used to obtain the most important influence factors of the five subsystems and the key subsystems that determine the overall stability of the system. The stability of the filling system of Jinchuan Longshou Mine was predicted. The results show that in order to ensure the stability of the filling system, the mine should increase investment in the aspects of stability evaluation, equipment maintenance and repair, research on key technologies, monitoring of slurry leakage and safety quality, Input and management.